Rocky campaign nears end as Serbia prepares for watershed election – as it happened

And, on that note, we will be closing the blog for today. Make sure to join us on Sunday night for our live blog covering the Serbian parliamentary election as strongman Aleksandar Vučić faces the biggest test of his 12 years of increasingly authoritarian rule in the country (16:54). Here is your summary of today’s events: It’s the last day of the electoral campaign in Serbia today ahead of this Sunday’s closely contested parliamentary election characterised by civil unrest, a new political landscape, allegations of irregularities, an uncertain outcome and the potential of far-reaching consequences (16:10, 16:20, 16:27, 16:35, 16:40, 16:44). Elsewhere, French president Emmanuel Macron has condemned “ultra left” for “seditious acts … aiming to bring down the Republic,” after consulting with intelligence and security authorities ahead of more protests planned this weekend (12:30). Macron said the government would ban demonstrations not organised by trade unions as it seeks to contain the civil unrest that rocked the country in recent weeks (11:33, 11:47, 12:34). But first attempts to block some demonstrations already face legal challenges as more protesters took to the streets today (15:53). Meanwhile, A Ukrainian national has been arrested in Germany on suspicion of spying for Russia, local prosecutors in Karlsruhe announced (13:28). German chancellor Friedrich Merz said he was not surprised by the arrest, as “Germany is a target of intensive espionage activity” all the time (14:02). If you have any tips, comments or suggestions, email me at jakub.krupa@theguardian.com. I am also on Bluesky at @jakubkrupa.bsky.social and on X at @jakubkrupa. We will be live blogging the election night in Serbia on Sunday, so make sure to join us Sunday evening for all the latest including first projections and reactions after the polls close. Presented by Helen Pidd with Tom Burgis In the heart of Belgrade, near the banks of the Danube, stands the General Staff building. Built in the 1960s, it embodies the difficult history of Serbia. It was designed to resemble a canyon of the Sutjeska River, where one of the most significant battles of the second world war was fought. Then suddenly, in November 2024, it was announced that the building was no longer protected from development. Instead, a tower with Donald Trump’s name on it would go up in its place. Protests and prosecutions followed, as opposition to the plan mounted. Investigations correspondent Tom Burgis tells Helen Pidd: “This isn’t just about the fate of a building, important though that kind of monument to Serbia’s history is. It’s about what is happening to the world when the US president is open for business.” The Trump family insist no political favours were sought or received in Serbia and that all they ever wanted to do was transform the site into “a symbol of healing and reconciliation”. But what does the murky tale of the Trump tower that was never built tell us? A former central Europe correspondent for the Guardian and the BBC History may not be about to repeat itself in Serbia, but it is beginning to rhyme. Just over a quarter of a century ago, Serbian citizens turned out to vote in large numbers to inflict a historic defeat on the then strongman in Belgrade, Slobodan Milošević, who was seeking re-election as president. He lost despite his extensive control over the media, the judiciary and the security forces. When he was reluctant to leave office, Serbs poured on to the streets in their hundreds of thousands, finally forcing him to go. On Sunday, a new generation could have the decisive voice in an equally fateful election, this time for the national parliament. Today’s strongman, Aleksandar Vučić, recently resigned as president to fight the election with the aim of swapping the locus of power from the presidency to the prime minister’s office. But Vučić, who has been in almost total control of Serbia for 14 years, finds himself on the back foot for the first time since he assumed power, just as Milošević did in 2000. Like his close friend, Viktor Orbán, who was decisively beaten in elections earlier this year, Vučić has felt compelled to pull out all the stops to halt the opposition electoral coalition, known as the Student List (SL). Vučić is throwing the kitchen sink at the campaign to skew the result his way. If despite all this the Student List emerges victorious at the election, the shock waves will be felt as powerfully across Europe as they were when Orbán was defeated. in Belgrade The Student List has rocked Serbia with two years of constant protests. On Sunday, the group will represent the most serious challenge Aleksandar Vučić has faced in his 12 increasingly authoritarian years in power, by putting forward their own candidates in parliamentary elections. They hope to emulate the defeat of Vučić’s ally, Viktor Orbán, in neighbouring Hungary six months ago, in a domino effect that could bring a democratic resurgence to central Europe. Opinion polls have varied wildly, but many expert observers say a close race is quite possible, with neither side prepared to accept a loss as a legitimate result, raising the risk of post-election unrest and clashes. In order to win, the students’ list of 250 candidates would have to break the mould of Serbian politics, along with Vučić’s grip on the country. He stepped down as president last month, five months before the end of his second and last term in office under the constitution, but only with the aim of extending his hold on power as prime minister at the head of his Serbian Progressive party (SNS). Corruption remains the most frequent single complaint on the doorstep. On the corruption index run by Transparency International, Serbia ranks far worse than any of its neighbours, as the most corrupt country in Europe bar the dictatorships in Belarus and Russia. There are frequent allegations of links between the SNS and organised crime, and the Student List’s slogan confronts that widespread perception head on, posing the question: “Serbia or Mafia?” The government denies all accusations and officially claims to be tackling organised crime. The economy has been growing in recent years, but there is a widespread opinion that the fruits are not being fairly distributed. Porsche and Land Rover car showrooms have been established in Krnjača but public spaces look neglected. Some of Belgrade’s trams are more than 50 years old. Vučić himself shows signs he is taking the political threat seriously enough to throw himself into the campaign, making 129 live television appearances in August, more than four times the previous month’s total. Previous elections have seen multiple allegations of various forms of rigging, including vote-buying, voter intimidation and ballot box stuffing, so the Student List is planning to deploy an unprecedented number of opposition monitors on Sunday. One of the curious quirks (to put it, erm, diplomatically) of this year’s election is that Serbian voters overseas are facing major hurdles in casting their ballots in a tight parliamentary election this weekend, as reported by AP. The authorities decided that the overseas vote will be open in line with the Serbian time zone, forcing voters in Canada or the US to cast their ballots in the middle of the night. Some 100,000 people have registered to vote abroad this year, up from 39,000 in 2023. Critics say it’s a deliberate move to discourage voters abroad, who may be less supportive of populist strongman Aleksandar Vučić, but authorities insisted that wasn’t the case, AP said. Foreign minister Marko Đurić has said on X that the changes were guided “not only by the number of registered voters, but also by logistical, security, spatial, (and) staffing” criteria. (Side-eye.) Europe correspondent Opinion polls in Serbia are conflicting and not especially reliable, and there are significant concerns about electoral integrity, with allegations of state violence against opposition activists and government manipulation of voter registration lists and overseas voting arrangements. Over the past few months some polls have put SNS ahead, some the Student List, and others have forecast a neck-and-neck race. There is therefore a serious risk that whoever claims a 126-seat majority in the 250-strong parliament, the result will be contested. Analysts at the European Council on Foreign Relations suggest five main possible scenarios. The SNS could score a convincing victory, with the Student List entering parliament as a strong opposition; or a narrower, contested win, leading to street protests and legal challenges. The result could be inconclusive, with neither main coalition securing a majority. In that case, smaller traditional parties such as the Socialists could become kingmakers, or the election could be re-run. The Student List could win a majority, but find the result contested by Vučić and the SNS, again leading to protests and possible violent repression; or it could secure a clear mandate allowing a peaceful transfer of power and setting Serbia on a very different course. Polling stations open on Sunday at 7am local time and close 8pm, with early independent and unofficial projections expected from about 9pm and preliminary official results from the electoral commission in the early hours of the morning. Now, it’s the last day of the electoral campaign in Serbia today ahead of this Sunday’s closely contested parliamentary election. 6.5 million voters go to the polls on 25 October in a watershed race characterised by civil unrest, a new political landscape, allegations of irregularities, an uncertain outcome and the potential of far-reaching consequences. Jon Henley has this explainer for you: “Two events frame this election. The first was the collapse of the Novi Sad railway station canopy in November 2024, which killed 16 people and uncovered massive government and institutional corruption, setting off two years of anti-government protests. The second was the hero’s funeral accorded to the Serbian general Ratko Mladić, the “Butcher of Bosnia”, who was convicted of orchestrating Europe’s worst massacre since the second world war but buried with military honours in Belgrade last month. Amid international outrage but intense Serb nationalist pride, the increasingly authoritarian president, Aleksandar Vučić, who has dominated Serbia’s politics for 14 years, resigned to lead his ruling Serbian Progressive party (SNS) list in an attempt to become prime minister. Against him is the Student List, a grassroots, decentralised, student-led coalition that has evolved from a spontaneous protest movement after the Novi Sad disaster into a serious parliamentary challenger offering a clear alternative to the traditional parties. It matters because Serbia is an EU-candidate country that continues to balance ties with the west, Russia and China. Media bias, voter intimidation and electoral list irregularities mean any result could be contested, prompting mass protests and exacerbating regional instability.” in Paris Awa, 18, stood in the dock in the tribunal de Paris, a small, mute and bewildered figure seeming unable to understand, let alone answer, the simplest of questions. The court was told she had joined young people who looted an Yves Saint Laurent store on Boulevard Saint Germain in Paris’s Left Bank late on Sunday and stripped it bare within minutes. Awa was arrested at a nearby Métro station with a black balaclava and black gloves in her backpack along with four YSL handbags worth a total of €5,000 (£4,200). In the dock, dressed entirely in black – the clothes she was wearing when arrested two days earlier – she appeared panicked, clutched at her hair, picked her lip. Unable to speak, she covered her face and began to weep; first silently, then uncontrollably, her sobs punctuating an almost palpably painful silence. Awa was just one of 2,500 people arrested during last weekend’s rioting and looting across the country, more than 900 of whom are being fast-tracked through the courts using a procedure called comparution immédiate (immediate appearance). It sends them to trial straight or shortly after being taken into custody, or within three days if they are held in pretrial detention. The process of handling this sudden influx of cases has overwhelmed the courts and angered defendants’ lawyers, who say they have no time to meet clients. Dozens of protesters took to the Paris streets on Thursday despite bans on demonstrations ordered in multiple French cities following a weekend of clashes and widespread looting that marked France’s most violent unrest in years, AP reported. Organisers of the Paris protest said an administrative court in the city overturned a ban issued by police. The Paris police prefecture previously said the ban was necessary, given the risk of street violence after groups of masked youth clashed with police forces, looted shops and torched cars over the weekend. But the group successfully challenged it through the courts, Le Figaro reported. Germany’s council of tax experts expects €43.4bn more in tax revenue ⁠for the state ⁠as a whole over 2026 to 2030 than forecast in May, updated ⁠projections show. Reuters reports finance minister Lars Klingbeil said: We are in a robust position … overall, we will not gain any new fiscal room for manoeuvre in 2027, but neither will ‌we have to close any new gaps. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy ⁠said on Thursday that Russia ⁠hit Kyiv ⁠overnight with three ballistic missiles carrying cluster ⁠munition warheads. Reuters reports that Zelenskyy said such missiles were ⁠designed to detonate in the ‌air as ‌they approach their ‌targets, spreading damage across an area 400 meters in diameter. He added that one ‌of them struck Kyiv’s historic district, hitting the area near the monastic buildings of Kyiv-Pechersk Lavra. Ukraine’s president also ⁠said that Russia had kept targeting Ukrainian energy infrastructure with more than ‌170 strikes on critical energy facilities since 11 October. There have been ugly scenes in Albania’s parliament, where AFP reports lawmakers grappled on the floor in a country which has seen a week of student demonstrations. Opposition MPs gathered in front of the speaker’s podium, calling for the session to be stopped because of the unrest, while holding pictures showing the face and wounds of a protester allegedly injured by police officers. Water and documents were lobbed towards the speaker, triggering a scuffle. Opposition leader Sali Berisha said: Opposition MPs decided today to serve as the voice for the demands of the student protests. This parliament cannot continue; it lacks legitimacy. Several hundred protesters gathered outside parliament today in a movement which has resolutely distanced themselves from any political party. Both Berisha and prime minister Edi Rama have been accused of corruption by the protest movement. German chancellor Friedrich Merz said he was not surprised by the arrest back at home, as “Germany is a target of intensive espionage activity” all the time, as he welcomed the news that the authorities uncovered the alleged spy. “But let us not delude ourselves: the activities of Russian intelligence services in Germany remain at a consistently high level.” Speaking from Montenegro, where he is taking part in the Berlin process summit, Merz also said “the western Balkans must not ‌become a theatre where major powers vie for influence,” as he repeated his support for further EU enlargement. Appearing alongside Montenegro’s Milojko Spajić and Austria’s Christian Stocker, Merz also responded to this week’s talks between Ukraine and the US, reiterating that Berlin is “committed to advancing this process,” but with a clear principle that “there will be no lasting peace in Ukraine without Europe.” “We are doing everything in our power to bring this war to an end as quickly as possible. Any format for dialogue that serves this goal is welcome. But a lasting solution cannot be reached over the heads of the Ukrainians.” Now, having covered the important stuff first, can we also take a moment to pause and consider what is surely the strangest press conference arrangement by the pool I have seen in years? We are also receiving news from Germany, where a Ukrainian national has been arrested on suspicion of spying for Russia, local prosecutors in Karlsruhe have announced. The man, identified in a press statement only as Vadym Y., is suspected of having been “in contact with a Russian intelligence service through an intermediary” for over a year, collecting “relevant military information.” This is alleged to have included “information about the production of armoured vehicles, ammunition, and explosives, as well as personnel and military facilities at sites securing Nato’s eastern flank.” The man is due to appear in court tomorrow. Meanwhile, the Paris prefecture has approved the proposed route of the main Parisian demonstration on Saturday, from Place de la Bastille to Place de la Nation. But a separate demonstration organised by the students collective Interfac and the so-called “yellow vests,” which wanted to go from Bastille to Place de l’Opera, will be blocked, the local authorities decided, as quoted by Le Monde. It’s a strong political response from Emmanuel Macron as he seeks to draw a clear line between legitimate demonstrations organised by recognised trade unions and the looser, often spontaneous gatherings called by the “ultra-left” that descend into rioting and street violence – and show the state’s determination to fight back against the latter. The signal he wants to send is very clear – but in the age of social media, can top-down regulation actually work? And will authorities have enough resources on the ground to respond to every banned demonstration? Hm. Macron declares the government will show “absolute” determination to stop the riots, with a “multi-pronged” approach in response to the events to restore order. He says that legitimate demonstrations held by trade union groups will be “reviewed in accordance with our laws” and allowed to go ahead in a way ensuring they can go ahead safely, with potential changes to their routes and subject to additional conditions. But he says any other protests, not organised by trade unions, will “wherever possible” be “prohibited entirely”. On substance, he says that PM Lecornu will meet with student organisations next week to work on “legitimate requests and grievances”. He ends by saying that he will hold further meetings with relevant authorities tomorrow. Macron begins by acknowledging there were some “shortcomings” in response to last weekend’s protests, with “an element of surprise.” He says the government needs to learn from that and apply it to this weekend’s events. He says that local authorities have been empowered to adopt local measures, such as bans on gatherings, and the judicial system is “fully mobilised” to respond to events. The president backs the justice ministry’s call for seeking harsh punishments for those involved in the riots. He then makes it very clear what he makes of the riots: “We witness both political and even seditious acts carried out by organised ultra-left groups aiming to bring down the Republic - acts that these groups themselves openly claim, characterised by extreme, intense violence.” Finally! France’s Macron is speaking now after this morning’s security council meeting on protests across the country. I’m listening and will bring you the key lines here. The international criminal court and its officials have been awarded the prestigious 2026 EU Sakharov human rights prize, the European parliament’s speaker Roberta Metsola just announced. “The European Union is built on respect for multilateralism and international institutions, and this prize recognises the important work of the court in upholding international law and justice,” Metsola said. It’s the latest recognition for the ICC as it finds itself under growing pressure from its critics, primarily the US president, Donald Trump, and Israel’s Benjamin Netanyahu. “I also want to use this moment to recognise Tundu Lissu from Tanzania, and Taraneh and Romina Rahimi on behalf of all those persecuted by the Iranian Islamic Regime,” Metsola added. The award ceremony will take place in December. Officials have banned “all protests” in France’s third-biggest city of Lyon on Saturday, ahead of nationwide demonstrations that day following rallies last weekend that descended into widespread street violence, AFP reported. The prefecture for the Rhone region said on Thursday in a statement to media that, “given the events of 17 October, the prefect has decided to ban by decree all protests in the city of Lyon this Saturday, 24 October”. Lyon, like Paris and other French cities, suffered clashes and looting when masked youths took to city centre streets on the sidelines of mass rallies protesting high inflation. The mayor of Lyon, Grégory Doucet, has said that his city experienced hours of “chaos” during the riots, with between 150 and 200 shops looted and a tourist office torched. Police arrested some 200 people. As we are waiting for Macron, first details of the planned police response to this weekend’s protests are emerging. Junior interior minister, Jean-Didier Berger, said that the police presence will be “20% higher” than last weekend, with reinforcements from the army, elite police forces and gendarmerie. But French media are reporting that some shopkeepers do not seem to be convinced, and they reinforce their own security measures, closing and boarding up some of their shops. in Palermo As lorry drivers’ protests bring much of southern Italy to a standstill amid food and fuel shortages, with businesses warning they are on the brink of collapse, Italian authorities have launched a police crackdown on road blockades. The interior ministry said on Wednesday that 1,339 protesters had been identified, 71 reported to judicial authorities and 242 fined over what it described as “illegal road blockades”. Police escorted hundreds of vehicles carrying goods, including 500 in Campania alone, while the interior minister, Matteo Piantedosi, warned of possible infiltration by criminal groups. Industry associations in Campania and Puglia warned that businesses were on the brink of collapse, prompting the prime minister, Giorgia Meloni, to convene an emergency cabinet meeting. “The truckers’ dispute requires an immediate response,” said industry associations representing Naples and other parts of Campania and Puglia in a joint statement. “Production has ground to a halt due to a lack of supplies. The strike must end; otherwise, the damage to consumers and businesses, which is already significant, will become unsustainable.” The protests began last week, with lorry drivers blocking roads and slowing traffic across the country, particularly in the south, following strikes and sit-ins by farmers and fishers. The disruption has left supermarket shelves empty in several regions. Stocks at some supermarket chains have reportedly fallen to 50% of normal levels. Italy’s air traffic management agency, ENAV, said on Wednesday that Crotone and Reggio Calabria airports had run out of jet fuel because of supply disruptions. According to estimates gathered by Confcommercio Sicilia, the five-day disruption to freight transport has caused between €40m and €50m in losses in Sicily alone, affecting supermarkets and the wider fresh food supply chain. The protests threaten to deepen the crisis facing Meloni’s government, which is struggling to contain the unrest. Measures announced so far by Rome appear to have done little to appease lorry drivers, prompting the government to take the controversial step of attempting to quell the protests through a police crackdown. And as we wait for Macron, we have an update for you from Italy on lorry drivers’ protests there. I am keeping an eye on France, where Emmanuel Macron is set to speak shortly after this morning’s emergency security council meeting ahead of more protests expected this weekend. I will bring you the key lines when he shows up. Meanwhile, we are getting more lines from Ukraine, with Belarusian state news agency reporting that Russia and Ukraine exchanged bodies of their war dead today. Moscow handed over 252 corpses, and received 25 bodies in return, it said. We will no doubt hear about this from the official channels later. Meanwhile, French health authorities said they had detected ⁠the Shamonda ⁠virus usually affecting livestock in a human for the first ⁠time in a patient who later died, while adding that ⁠they saw no risk to the general ‌population at ‌this stage. Shamonda virus is an insect-borne ‌Orthobunyavirus primarily affecting livestock, particularly cattle, and transmitted by biting midges, Reuters explained. First identified in Nigeria in the mid-1960s, it has since been detected sporadically ‌in animals in Africa and Japan. It has been spreading among several European countries this year. The virus had until now been considered non-transmissible to humans, ⁠the French government said. Italy and Spain have dropped mutual border controls introduced in the aftermath of the Ceuta border crisis. We covered that scenario on the blog last week (Europe Live, Friday). In a statement, the Italian interior ministry said the two interior minister held “a cordial telephone” and “agreed that the suspensions of Schengen in force … will not be extended further.” “The decision, which came after a careful analysis of the situation, will be accompanied by a strengthening of the exchange of information to ensure the full security of the Schengen common area,” the statement said. Oh, that’s tasty. Ukraine’s president Volodymyr Zelenskyy responded to overnight attacks on Kyiv with a dig at US peace envoy Steve Witkoff’s comments lauding Russia’s Vladimir Putin as “a humanitarian”. Zelenskyy said: “Three waves of ballistic missiles have been launched at Kyiv by Russian ‘humanitarians’ since yesterday evening. They used 21 missiles. Unfortunately, numerous sites across the city have been hit and damaged: ordinary residential buildings, energy facilities, infrastructure at one of the railway stations and the metro, shopping malls, and businesses. Even a monastery is among the damaged sites. Our emergency services are working at all the affected locations. Twelve of our regions came under Russian attack overnight.” He said that at least two people died and 34 people were injured, including five children, in Kyiv. “Almost immediately after another round of talks, Russia launched a pointed attack. This means there has been no real change in its attitude toward everything that is happening. It is important to keep trying to find the right solutions to end this war. But when Russia responds to negotiations with ballistic missiles, real pressure on Russia is needed to bring about different steps – steps toward ending the killing.” Thailand has advised its citizens to postpone non-essential travel to parts of Europe rocked by protests, while Malaysia also warned its nationals about visiting France, AFP reported. “Those travelling from Thailand to Europe must closely monitor the situation as it is changing rapidly and France remains a concern as the situation is still ongoing,” Thai foreign minister Sihasak Phungketkeow told reporters late Wednesday during a trip to Italy. He cited concerns about protests in Italy, noting his Italian counterpart had to cancel their bilateral due to an urgent government cabinet meeting on the unrest, adding: “We are also worried about Spain.” “If it’s not necessary, with everything going on in those countries, I think it’s better to delay the trip for a while.” The Malaysian embassy in Paris had on Sunday advised Malaysians in France “to exercise caution and remain vigilant” due to the protests. China warned its citizens travelling to France to take safety precautions, state broadcaster CCTV reported Monday, after town halls and shops were looted and set on fire at the weekend. French president Emmanuel Macron is back from his tour of the Gulf and convening a meeting with relevant ministers and intelligence services to figure out what can be done to prevent unsavoury scenes on the streets of French cities as more protests are planned for this Saturday. “The government must hold its nerve,” Macron told reporters earlier this week. He is expected to speak after the meeting, so once to watch. Later today, French prime minister Sébastien Lecornu will hold a separate meeting with party leaders to discuss their concerns, including about policing and the next year’s presidential campaign. Over in Ukraine, there are no signs of Russian attacks stopping anytime soon, after a night of “massive strikes” on port infrastructure facilities in Odesa region and on Kyiv. Ukraine’s foreign minister Andii Sybiha commented on the attacks, saying: “Kyiv residents heard what Russian ‘humanism’ truly sounds like: a brutal attack with dozens of ballistic missiles striking energy infrastructure, medical facilities, shopping centers, and residential areas. Other cities across Ukraine came under attack as well. Appeasement, servility, and flattery will not stop this war. Only strength will.” No prizes for guessing who he may be addressing these comments to. I will also bring you the latest from Serbia where the last day of campaigning begins before this Sunday’s closely contested parliamentary election. Lots for us to cover. It’s Thursday, 22 October 2026, it’s Jakub Krupa here, and this is Europe Live. Good morning.